Cost decoding of the hottest paper industry tight

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Cost decoding of the paper industry: the supply and demand pattern is tight, and the price center may move up

the cost plus method can be used for pricing in China's paper industry. Generally speaking, 1 to 1.2 tons of waste paper are required for each ton of packaging paper, and 1 ton of pulp is required for each ton of cultural paper. Raw materials usually account for about 70% of the cost of paper products. Generally speaking, the production and inventory cycle of the paper industry is short, and the correlation between raw materials and finished product prices is high. In 2017, China consumed 78.96 million tons of waste paper raw materials, about 2/3 of which came from China, and waste paper was mainly priced by China; In 2017, China's wood pulp consumption was 31.52 million tons, of which 10.4 million tons were consumed domestically and 21.12 million tons were imported from abroad. The self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp was 34%. The import dependence was high, and the pulp price followed the international fluctuations

why is the industry in a downward channel in 2018

the supply of raw materials is orderly, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the profitability of the enterprise is weakened. In terms of waste paper: in 2018, the supply side increased the approval frequency of foreign waste import, and the annual total decreased, but the distribution was more reasonable. There was still a surplus quota at the end of the year, easing the market panic; The downstream packaging paper industry on the demand side has developed steadily with limited demand increment. In terms of pulp: due to the sluggish demand for paper products this year, the operating rate of enterprises was reduced, and the demand for raw materials was reduced. In the fourth quarter, as the traditional peak consumption season, manufacturers have always had a tradition of stocking up. This year, the delivery of pulp was not smooth, resulting in high inventory, which led to the decline of pulp prices in the fourth quarter

how to view the cost trend of paper industry in 2019

supply and demand are tight, and the price center still has room to move up. Waste paper: the import policy on the supply side will continue to be tightened. It is expected that the import quota of foreign waste will be reduced by more than 30% next year. By 2020, the import of foreign waste will be completely banned. The increment of domestic waste paper is limited, and it is difficult to significantly improve the recovery rate in the short term. On the demand side, due to the packaging paper industry and the smooth switching between various control situations, the industry is relatively mature, the increment is limited, the supply and demand structure is tight, and the gap of raw materials is about 7million tons. In terms of pulp: on the supply side, the concentration of large overseas pulp enterprises has increased, and the pulp price can be stabilized by controlling the speed of production capacity. It is estimated that the new output in 2019 will not exceed 1.5 million tons; On the demand side, the demand for pulp mainly comes from the incremental demand for household paper and the alternative demand for waste paper. The total new demand is about 2million tons. In the short term, it will be dominated by destocking. There is a certain downward pressure on the pulp price. In the medium and long term, the global supply and demand are in tight balance. It is expected that the pulp price will be stable in the center and lack of downward momentum

how to invest when the new cost pattern of the paper industry can also be made into an integrated structure

pay attention to the leading enterprises in the packaging paper industry with foreign waste quota and high cost; Focus on the household paper enterprises with good downstream demand growth, short-term cost reduction and long-term stability

stable transmission: Miao Rong

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