Fuyao Glass predicts a compound growth rate of net

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Fuyao Glass: predict the compound growth rate of net profit of 15% in the next three years

profit forecast and Valuation: the compound growth rate of net profit of 15% in the next three years, maintain the "buy" rating

the company has a penetration rate of more than 70% in the field of medium and high-end passenger cars. The project team said that the demand side is relatively stable; On the cost side, the price of raw materials shared with construction grade float glass with a large decline in prosperity has been significantly adjusted. With the full production of Chongqing projects, the self distribution rate of the company's glass raw sheets has gradually increased from 50% to%, and the company is at the inflection point of performance improvement. The Zhengzhou project and the Russian project of the company were successively put into operation at the end of 2012 and the Spring Festival of 2013, providing new growth points for the company; With the increase of the proportion of new products such as coating and the improvement of soft power, the company's supply system is connected with the procurement system of global giants, and the overseas supporting share is expected to increase significantly

we expect the company's earnings per share in 2012, 2013 and 2014 to be 0.77 yuan, 0.94 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 7.48 yuan on July 30, 2012, the corresponding dynamic P/E ratios in 2012, 2013 and 2014 are divided into 10 times, 8 times and 6 times, and the compound growth rate of net profit in the next three years is 15%. At present, the company's cash flow can meet the fatigue performance of metal materials in service under high-frequency, low amplitude and high cycle environmental conditions. It has abundant, low-cost and sustainable financing ability, high dividend rate, clear competition structure in its industry, scarce corporate governance structure and industry competitiveness in the A-share market, and continues to maintain the "buy" investment rating

based on the profit forecast of the company's earnings per share of 0.77 yuan in 2012, the reasonable price range in the next 12 months is 9.24 yuan -11.55 yuan, implying 12-15 times in 2012; The dynamic P/E ratio of 10-12 times in 2013, combined with the company's independent design ability of high-end thin glass production lines and the prospect and pace of overseas supporting share improvement, gives a lower limit of 12 times P/E ratio in 2012, corresponding to a reasonable price of 9.24 yuan in 12 months. Zhonghua glass () Department

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